Younes Nader
Work
Market-entry brief · June 2026

Costco in the Emirates.

Should the world’s leading warehouse club enter the UAE, and if so, how? A bottom-up market-entry analysis built entirely from public sources.

01 — The opportunity

No membership warehouse club currently operates in the UAE or wider GCC. The brief sizes that white space from the ground up, covering UAE grocery-market sizing, the regulatory environment, the competitive landscape, and an original financial model, rather than reasoning down from a global comparison.

$29.7bn
total addressable
market
$398m
Year-3 obtainable
revenue, base case
Market sizing funnel by Younes Nader: narrowing a $29.7bn UAE grocery TAM down to a $2.2bn serviceable market (SAM) and a $398m Year-3 obtainable revenue base case (SOM)
Bottom-up sizing, narrowing $29.7bn TAM to a $398m Year-3 base case.
02 — Recommendation

Enter, but conditioned on two variables the brief names rather than assumes away.

The base case supports entry. What it does not do is pretend the case is closed: the recommendation is held against two unresolved figures, both load-bearing, both stated openly.

03 — Open variables
i
Membership density per warehouse

How many paying members a single club can realistically anchor, the figure the whole revenue model pivots on.

ii
The cost of suitable big-box land

Whether sites of the right size and access exist at a price the format can carry, a real constraint in dense UAE markets.

On reading it

Full brief, covering executive summary, opportunity, market sizing, regulatory environment, competitive landscape, entry strategy, financial case, risks, and recommendation, available as a PDF on request.